The U.S. military operation in the Middle East should be viewed through the lens of the broader geopolitical confrontation with China. The Trump administration appears to have drawn lessons from its perceived success in Venezuela, where Washington managed within hours to replace the country’s leadership with a government more loyal to U.S. interests, secure influence over cheap energy resources, and weaken Venezuela’s alliance with China. Moreover, the United States demonstrated to the world China’s inability to protect its allies — a signal that could have long-term geopolitical consequences.
The U.S. approach toward Iran follows a similar pattern: a force-driven attempt at regime change, a demonstration of military dominance, and the expectation that more pragmatic political actors will eventually emerge and reach an agreement with Washington. It would be incorrect to assume that transforming Iran from an authoritarian regime into a democracy is the Trump administration’s ultimate objective. The real goals are different: weakening China, gaining access to cheap energy resources, and increasing influence over global oil pricing. In Iran’s case, there is also an opportunity to support key U.S. allies — Israel and several Gulf states — while, for Trump personally, achieving a nuclear deal that could be presented as “better than Obama’s.”
Iran has effectively ceased to be a reliable ally of Russia, which has now demonstrated its military weakness on the global stage for the third time. First came the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, heavily backed by Putin’s Russia; then the fall of Maduro in Venezuela; and now the near-total dismantling of Iran’s hardline leadership.
The key question, however, is how long a war against Iran could last. If the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) manages to stabilize the internal situation and Iranian forces succeed in blocking the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil exports pass — for 90 days or longer, the world could face a sharp surge in energy prices. The economic shock from such a scenario would resemble the COVID-era market collapse, from which the global economy has still not fully recovered.
For Ukraine, this would likely mean a reduction in support from allies, as global political and military attention would increasingly shift eastward, drawing more countries into the conflict. A prolonged war would benefit Putin, who could attempt to strengthen his negotiating position with the United States through influence over Iran’s leadership, while also boosting Russian budget revenues in the short term through increased Chinese demand for Russian oil. China could lose access to large volumes of cheap Iranian oil for an indefinite period, forcing it to seek alternative suppliers.