The sociological study “Peace Agreement: Before and After” highlights two key trends: belief in Ukraine’s military victory remains strong, but trust in the durability of peace with Russia is almost nonexistent. For most Ukrainians, a peace agreement is seen not as a “finish line,” but as a pause that Russia could eventually break.
How Ukrainians Assess the Frontline and Chances of Victory
Public assessments of the battlefield situation are almost evenly divided:
- 30.2% believe the sides are currently “even”;
- 27.2% see Ukraine as having the advantage;
- 31.2% believe Russia has the upper hand.
At the same time, 65.2% of respondents consider a Ukrainian military victory realistic.
Do Ukrainians Believe in a Peace Agreement?
Here, the response is nearly unanimous:
- 83.4% believe a violation of a peace agreement by Russia is realistic;
- 81.8% expect this to happen within the next 2–10 years;
- 93.6% believe the government should prepare for the continuation of war.
War Goals and “Guarantees of Peace”
The most commonly identified primary objective of the war is preserving Ukraine’s sovereignty — 48.6%.
Other key goals include:
- de-occupation of territories — 20.9%;
- military defeat or weakening of Russia — 19.6%.
When it comes to guarantees of peace, respondents place their greatest trust in Ukraine’s own strength:
- 36.8% support modernization and expansion of the armed forces;
- 34.9% support Ukraine possessing nuclear weapons.
Western guarantees and NATO membership also remain important, though ranked lower:
- 30.1% support security guarantees from the US and EU based on NATO Article 5 principles without formal membership;
- 29.7% support full NATO membership.
Support for Defense and Hardline Attitudes
A total of 73.5% are willing for part of their income to be directed through taxes toward strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
In addition, 73.3% support revoking citizenship from individuals who consciously moved to Russia during the full-scale war.
Mobilization: Supported, but with Conditions
61.6% believe mobilization should continue, but with changes in approach.
The most popular proposed measures include:
- increased salaries and improved service conditions — 59.5%;
- better military training — 50.5%.
The most frequently cited reasons for draft evasion are:
- fear of death or serious injury — 58.8%;
- distrust in military leadership — 49.6%.
Zelensky and Expectations from Negotiations
A total of 66.7% believe Volodymyr Zelenskyy will defend Ukraine’s interests during negotiations.
At the same time, the majority oppose key concessions:
- 91.1% oppose reducing the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
- 87.1% oppose lifting sanctions on Russia;
- 74.8% oppose withdrawing Ukrainian troops from the controlled part of Donetsk region.
Conclusion
The study reflects a dominant public position: Ukrainians are open to negotiations, but do not believe in a reliable or lasting peace with Russia. The public demand can be summarized simply — prepare for the risk of a breakdown in agreements and continue strengthening Ukraine’s own defense capabilities.
